The Iranian Revolution ultimately resulted in a conservative government being installed. A dislike for the Shah and a desire to unseat him initially united the people of Iran, but that is where the shared viewpoint ends. After the Shah left Iran in 1979, Iran was deeply divided on how to manage the vacated government. There was a prolonged conflict between the People's Mujahideen (liberal communists: desired a secular government), Moderates (middle: desired a government with Islamic influence but democratic) and the Conservatives (desired a pure theocracy). However, by the end of 1979, Khomeini (leader of the conservatives) had seized complete power for life, and thus, created an Islamic Republic that is still the current government of Modern Iran.
Many experts compare the Egyptian Revolution of 2011 to the Iranian Revolution of 1979. I am not writing to compare the two revolutions, but I wish to share a prediction concerning the outcome of the ongoing Egyptian Revolution. I predict that the Egyptian Revolution will not result in a theocracy like the Iranian Revolution, but it will ultimately lead to a moderate government. I make this prediction based on the evidence of one article I read that examined the role of Sunnis versus Shiites on the results of the Iranian and Egyptian societies.
According to Joe Schlesinger, "Sunnis consider their relationship with God direct and imams are generally seen only as prayer leaders", while "The Shia, on the other hand, have a hierarchical structure and their imams are considered community leaders". Egyptians are predominantly Sunni Muslims while Iranians are Shiites. Because Sunnis place less importance on the role of imams in society, it is logical that Sunnis would have a larger distinction between mosque and state. This contrasts with a Shiite society that places incredible emphasis on imams on society. In a Shiite society, imams would have more power and leadership because they would have to make that vital connection between God and his people. On the other hand, Sunnis are more apt to directly speak with God, and therefore have less need of an imam in society; therefore, the imams are not as powerful in a Sunni nation.
This has impact in the Egyptian Revolution because, obviously, the people involved are Sunni Muslims. I predicted that the Egyptian revolution will not end in a theocracy, because, among other reasons, the Sunnis will be less inclined to elevate an imam, or any other religious leader, to power. Unlike Khomeini who was an imam himself and easily convinced the Shiite Iranians to elect him leader, an Egyptian conservative leader will have a much harder time convincing the people to elect a religious figure to power.
It's a plausible argument, and yet...
ReplyDeleteSaudia Arabia, which is if anything even more repressive and theocratic than Iran, is a Sunni country. And the Taliban in Afghanistan were also Sunni. So the Sunnis certainly seem capable of setting up repressive, religiously-based governments.
By the way, instead of pasting the URL into your post, you should link directly to the article within the text of the post.